11 jul BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests a bit and I like the new selection of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st location. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $30k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
Money Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I’m not loving this slate for cash games, and that I was only going to decide on the main occasion stack for my money game play of this week. However, I will see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the pile and I believe Shane Young makes a fantastic cash game play. I really don’t understand how large of a ceiling he has because I do think this struggle goes 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he’s a top floor since this battle should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this fight with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I really do think he has 100-point upside into a conclusion, and I also think he could complete this fight. However, I feel like he’s a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my cash game play of the week rather than my GPP play. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I believe he can hang the feet too. I expect him to search for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any floor game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I believe Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but that is exactly why he’s my GPP drama of the week and not my cash game play of this week. In cash, I wish to lock in high floors and that’s not what we have here. I enjoy this for GPPs because when he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many points he’s, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come off with a gain if he lost a decision at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would simply need to hit our other areas. We don’t want 6 wins in cash, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the chance on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside since he will be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him getting numerous takedowns as well as a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round submission and I do not expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who could be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this fight to remain position for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the distance and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that’s true, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a fair amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not place him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he is my underdog play of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must remain on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of the week. I have chosen him as my fade each time he has fought so that I am going to roll with it . The style Alvey brings to the table is simply not valuable for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score highly is by obtaining a knockout win. He fails to strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he will not be heading for almost any takedowns. Even if he gets a conclusion win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that may not be enough to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter when I roster them and with his $7.9k price label, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 54-34 for +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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